Cluelessness Seems To Be The Norm Nowadays (fall Colors)

It's not just the Internet, Dan. 'Experts' frequently assert and publish differing opinions and faux-facts; even textbooks suffer from that poo.
It's always been that way.

Dan,

Here on the East Coast, Florida, we were always told that a dry summer, followed by a wet fall and then a gradual cold snap, would produce the best colors. But as YOU know, the Smokies are a bit different and all have their own "micro-climates" and one side of the mountain might be green and the other side perfect!

Rich

Wendy,

I'll disagree. Yes, differing opinions have always existed. But in the past, the wrongful ones seem to have been "outed." The internet has afforded the opportunity for the wrongful ones to be published, almost with impunity.

Another thing I have found is there are known bad players - consistently. I'm in NC. Asheville is a major city in the mountains and the main industry is tourism. There are publications that always have glowing, pro-Asheville things to say no matter what is going on. Romantic Asheville is one. An atomic bomb could go off, totally leveling the NC mountains back to a flat desert and Romantic Asheville will still run a story promoting Asheville tourism telling people things in the mountains could not be more beautiful. They're despicable IMHO. I learned long ago not to trust them or anything they say... along with other players on the internet.

Dan, the publications are similar in any tourist area. I used to live in Myrtle Beach, SC and you see the same thing there. I just saw one article comparing Myrtle Beach to Hawaii of all places. Made me laugh.

I do understand what you are saying about the perpetuation of 'alternative' facts though. It is a shame that you have to do your own research on anything these days to find out if it is true or not.

I just look outside.

What Bill said!

MM,

My wife told me that Myrtle Beach was recently named the most dangerous (or one of the most dangerous) cities in America. I have not looked it up myself, so I'm trusting what she says.

That being said, I wonder what that publication says about that? LOL.

Myrtle Beach - 3rd most dangerous city in the U.S.

Here's the report:
https://www.safewise.com/blog/most-dangerous-cities/

Wow that is an odd list, I wouldn't have guessed any of those except maybe Miami.

Fall color here in NJ is basically none. I live on the Delaware River which is usually beautiful by now and all the color, except for a bush here and there, is green and brown. Until the last few weeks we have had no rain for the majority of the summer.

It was a bust here too. A tree here and there with brilliant color, but mostly dark oranges and browns. Or the leaves blew off the trees before they had a chance to change.

Long Island NY color hasn't happened yet...I don't know if it will this year. ;-(

Hey, anyone can call themselves an authority and have their opinions published.
In matters of no clear answer, they remain just opinions, rather that hard cold facts.

I don't worry about fall colors her in Tucson....same all year long

Yep, same here in NC except for the rare, select area.

Two hurricane remnants blew thru here with lots of rain and horrendous winds. The result was lots of leaves prematurely blown off trees (entire trees downed for that matter). What's left is turning brown then falling off. I guess if your thing is dead brown leaves, it's a good year.

Still, taking wilderness trips nonetheless. Been doing it for decades. Good year, bad year... doesn't matter. It's a tradition. Overnight lows in the NC Blue Ridge is in the 30's. Gonna' take some hot soup. Sitting in the cold among bare or dead-appearing trees sipping hot soup and coffee is still tons better than sitting is a scummy city.

I am seeing that some red leaves already turning brown before the golden leaves are even showing. Many leaves have dried up and have fallen, so it looks like it's not a very good autumn season for us in the New York City area. The beginning of November can be really nice with reds, browns, and russet colors.

Jessica, those who have returned from northern New England mentioned this has been a lackluster season.

I attribute it to the warmer temperatures. It will be in the 70s again this coming weekend.

Last year we had a very dry summer. Water bans and brown landscapes, but fall delivered beautiful color.

This year was a wetter more humid summer, no water ban and green grass. I’m seeing some color but leaves are dying and dropping.

I’ll be in NH once more and am hoping to get some autumn shots.

On the way to Door County Wisconsin as I read this. There for the colors and photos. Hope your wrong about the color, but if so, I may do a lot of black and white then.

Stomped around NC Blue Ridge Mountain wilderness areas about 14 hours yesterday (Thurs, 10-19-2017).

Overall, one of the worst years for color I have ever seen.

BUT it was confusing. At some lower elevations the trees were bare and at some higher elevations there was lots of green and room for colors yet to develop. This is bass-ackwards to the norm. The only thing I can attribute this to is the two hurricane remnants that moved thru the NC mountains. The heavy rain and tropical storm force winds damaged some areas and left others alone, thus different conditions not related to altitude.

One thing I did discover, though, is the majority of fall color predictions were dead wrong. They based recommendations on altitude, but those recommendations were wrong. Some areas recommended were bad, but as said above, much higher elevations (that the "experts" said were past peak) were yet to change. I guess they based their info on a sampling of one area and did not take into account regional damage by the storms.

Before sunrise I did see lots of areas with heavy frost, tho. The first frost for NC mountains? Don't know, but if color changes depends heavily upon frosts and freezes as some say, the changes are now underway.

everyone is an expert....

right now its feeling like spring. but there are dead leaves in the street, and the trees are either green or have brown tips. we've had little rain. last year we had a lot of color. its hard to know what the right answer is. but i think its temperature based overall.


---Mike Savad
http://www.MikeSavad.com

Other things can affect the fall color as well. Last year the aspens here were ugly, the leaves just turned a dull orange and fell off. Turns out there was a fungus that year that had infected all the aspens. Supposedly it's a cyclical thing. I've noticed going by the altitude logic isn't always right as well. When I drove up a local canyon a couple weeks ago I saw aspens that had turned and were started to lose leaves at the lower altitude but up near the top there were whole sections that had only started turning, but there were also sections that had lost their leaves. People that don't observe these things (unlike artists and photographers of course) don't understand that autumn doesn't happen all at once. That's one advantage to being a painter, I can paint autumn how I want it to be rather than how it really is.

Teton was mostly a bust this year. Not a lot of color or consistency. There were bright patches next to big green areas with some leafless trees mixed in.

Still 90% green here with some pops of color. I think it's temperature/light based and less dependent on water. Based solely on what I've experienced here.

The problems with scientific research and any opinion will be published is extremely dangerous to good medical practices. Doctors quickly learn to weed through an endless list of crap.

Vaccines? Autism? Anyone can believe anything. Does not make it so.

There is no fall in CT. The temperatures are too high. Many of the leaves have dropped. I see brown out my window.

Dave

There's still a lot of green here with the intermittent bright tree, but also some bare ones early. We had severe wind last week, and in fact I lost a very large branch from one of my maples in the back, which is sitting there waiting for a chainsaw now. In any case, that wind storm blew the leaves off that one maple, but my other maple is turning directly brown this year. It usually goes through a brilliant yellow stage. I'm just north of Detroit along the Saint Clair river - I can see Canada when I go downtown so I'm as far east as you can get in the state. But I'm going to hit the hiking trail tomorrow to see if there's any color in there. I'm thinking it's not going to be anywhere near what it has been in the past. We had record high temps at the end of September, first week of October. I'm sure that probabaly messes with the seasonal cycles of the foliage and trees.

Still green in Baltimore, although color won't be long in coming. Autumn color is influenced by a whole bunch of factors, not just having rain. It's also when the rain arrived (if it did), how much rain came during summer well before autumn, what kind of trees you have, night temps, and freezes. An ill timed wind storm can blow leaves off just as they hit their peak, as can heavy rain at peak time. Baltimore had been dry for a couple weeks and was getting worrying, but now, we've had some rain and no premature frost, so I'm guessing that our color peak (usually end of October, but late this year) will probably be pretty good. Maryland, DC, Pennsylvania and Virginia are possibly the apex of autumn color, with lots of different trees with different colors, so it really can be quite spectacular around here.

I took a drive though the canyon and over the mountain to check out the American Impressionist Society show in Park City. The aspens are all bare up there now, it was kind of sad, in fact a deep feeling of melancholy came over me as I mourned the loss of summer/autumn. The AIS show was real good though, there was some color in Park City but the leaves are definitely heading out. I got snowed on, on the way back down the canyon. Here in the Salt Lake Valley it's a mix of green/color/bare.

Well I got out of the condo about two hours ago. The trees that have some color are drab and towards brown. But most of the trees, if they have leaves still, are green.

Dave

Well, I looked again, and my one maple tree actually isn't turning brown, so maybe I'll get my bright yellow yet - I was thinking it was turning brown because it's loaded with maple seeds right now. I just didn't look close enough.

i think our poison ivy is looking quite nice. but right now its like 75f, and its all green. by now usually there is some yellow.

but its worrisome, because if this goes into november like this, and we have an ice storm, there will be a lot of branches and trees down. i remember that year, after the storm, plenty of leaves fell... of course they had like 2 pounds of ice on them.


---Mike Savad
http://www.MikeSavad.com

I can tell you that here in Vermont we got a two week heat wave at the end of September that killed the colors this year. Generally we are at peak at that time and peak came about two weeks later. We did have pockets of nice color but a lot of the leaves were dry and crinkled with little rain over the past month and a great deal of cloudless, sunny days.

The same experts will tell you that cold weather causes the flu.

And the Napa Valley tourism council will say its a great time to visit wine country.

.....

Here in New Hampshire I've been seeing very dull colors although lately a lot of reds are popping. We have a drought lately - something like 30 day without any significant rain.

Two nights ago:

"The same experts will tell you that cold weather causes the flu."

Yep. I -still- have people tell me to put on a coat so I don't catch the flu! LOL.
But I guess it does (cause the flu) , albeit indirectly: If you're out in the cold without a coat, you'll scurry inside where all the windows are closed and the diseased, germy people are hacking their germs into the air. Viola! You have the flu!

"And the Napa Valley tourism council will say its a great time to visit wine country. "

Well, I will make no jokes here in respect of all the lost and broken lives and the incredible loss. But yea, all tourism councils everywhere seem to suffer from the same disease: "Lie-Thru-Your-Teeth-Itis"

Back on topic:

In the Blue Ridge Mountains, hardwood are heavily slanted toward yellow (which is by far the major color). Those seem to be the most turning to brown and falling off. But as observed above, some reds are starting to develop and may yet create something to look at. We'll see.

"And the Napa Valley tourism council will say its a great time to visit wine country."

Yesterday as I was heading up the canyon I saw an electronic billboard at the base of the canyon, an ad came on advertising a restaurant that's up in the canyon, it said "The leaves are are just starting to turn" or something like that. Umm no...the leaves have left entirely. Not a timely billboard ad at all.

I was expecting some better colors in Door County. Just got back last night. Lots of images to post. This is te first one with Cana Island in the background.

The Splendor of Autumn

Every autumn we revel in the beauty of the fall colors. The mixture of red, purple, orange and yellow is the result of chemical processes that take place in the tree as the seasons change from summer to winter.

image of leaf During the spring and summer the leaves have served as factories where most of the foods necessary for the tree's growth are manufactured. This food-making process takes place in the leaf in numerous cells containing chlorophyll, which gives the leaf its green color. This extraordinary chemical absorbs from sunlight the energy that is used in transforming carbon dioxide and water to carbohydrates, such as sugars and starch.

Along with the green pigment are yellow to orange pigments, carotenes and xanthophyll pigments which, for example, give the orange color to a carrot. Most of the year these colors are masked by great amounts of green coloring.

Chlorophyll Breaks Down

But in the fall, because of changes in the length of daylight and changes in temperature, the leaves stop their food-making process. The chlorophyll breaks down, the green color disappears, and the yellow to orange colors become visible and give the leaves part of their fall splendor.At the same time other chemical changes may occur, which form additional colors through the development of red anthocyanin pigments. Some mixtures give rise to the reddish and purplish fall colors of trees such as dogwoods and sumacs, while others give the sugar maple its brilliant orange.

The autumn foliage of some trees show only yellow colors. Others, like many oaks, display mostly browns. All these colors are due to the mixing of varying amounts of the chlorophyll residue and other pigments in the leaf during the fall season.

Other Changes Take Place

As the fall colors appear, other changes are taking place. At the point where the stem of the leaf is attached to the tree, a special layer of cells develops and gradually severs the tissues that support the leaf. At the same time, the tree seals the cut, so that when the leaf is finally blown off by the wind or falls from its own weight, it leaves behind a leaf scar.

Image of trees changing colors in the fallMost of the broad-leaved trees in the North shed their leaves in the fall. However, the dead brown leaves of the oaks and a few other species may stay on the tree until growth starts again in the spring. In the South, where the winters are mild, some of the broad-leaved trees are evergreen; that is, the leaves stay on the trees during winter and keep their green color.

Only Some Trees Lose Leaves

Most of the conifers - pines, spruces, firs, hemlocks, cedars, etc. - are evergreen in both the North and South. The needle- or scale-like leaves remain green or greenish the year round, and individual leaves may stay on for two to four or more years.

Weather Affects Color Intensity

Temperature, light, and water supply have an influence on the degree and the duration of fall color. Low temperatures above freezing will favor anthocyanin formation producing bright reds in maples. However, early frost will weaken the brilliant red color. Rainy and/or overcast days tend to increase the intensity of fall colors. The best time to enjoy the autumn color would be on a clear, dry, and cool (not freezing) day.
Enjoy the color, it only occurs for a brief period each fall.
Text prepared by Carl E. Palm, Jr. as featured on weather .com .

2 farmers almanacs north east - winter prediction 2017-18

https://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather-outlook/2018-winter-forecast/ normal almanac - cold and snowy
https://www.almanac.com/blog/weather/weather-update/winter-outlook-2017-2018-colder-last-year old almanac, mild and wet.

so its all a guessing game.


---Mike Savad
http://www.MikeSavad.com

Wouldn't it matter what species of tree we're talking about?

Fall colors are driven by biochemistry, not all plants have the same pigmentation biochemistry.

The aspen trees of Colorado are very different from, for example, the sugar maples in Vermont.

Also, dryness is not the only factor that affects foliage pigmentation. I've heard everything from altitude, air quality, pest infestations, fungal attacks, and soil chemistry can affect pigmentation. Also how much sun/shade the tree gets matters.

If it's too wet, and your tree gets a fungal infection that attacks the roots, that could have approximately the same effect as the tree not getting water because of dry weather conditions.

We have a silver maple in our front yard. The yard service has to come put iron infusions in the soil or the tree turns this sickly yellow, in mid-summer.
Last summer the yard service tried a new technology for doing the iron infusions, and the trees didn't absorb the iron...so of course they turned yellow.

In my local area in Colorado, the consensus among plein air painters is the trees generally have more red in them this year.

People like simple answers. If it's a complex problem, you can get multiple apparently conflicting simple answers that are all partially correct.

@Mike
"2 farmers almanacs north east - winter prediction 2017-18

https://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather-outlook/2018-winter-forecast/ normal almanac - cold and snowy
https://www.almanac.com/blog/weather/weather-update/winter-outlook-2017-2018-colder-last-year old almanac, mild and wet.

so its all a guessing game. "

Interesting. I raked (blew) leaves today and the amount of fallen hickory nuts was stunning. Not just a little more - 5 if not 10 times the most I have ever seen. Same for the small acorns from the pen oak trees. My wife said this forecasts a rough winter. I replied "that's poppycock"

Can the amount of acorns or hickory nuts on the ground foretell winter weather two months down the road? Can the Farmer's Almanac? Does winter thunder indicate a coming snow? And does a groundhog really predict the weather or is it just a superstitious tradition that is continued because it brings lots of money in?

I tend to think not. The only thing I trust is current observations. Concerning fall colors, the reports above generally slant toward a bad year. And I think that's what we got - a crappy year for color.

It is too early to know in CT. We are nowhere near peak. So I can not say it is a bad year yet.

Dave

This might have been the most corny song ever written.

Massive seed production occurs when the tree is stressed. It's basic survival. If you think you are going to die, good idea to spread a lot of seed.

Typical, looks like we might be approaching peak now. It will be rainy and windy for the next couple of days.

Dave

Funny. And leads right back to the "you can't trust anybody / any information" comments.

Many people in this thread - many areas - reporting colors yet to peak.

BUT on the local news last night (Sun., 10/22) the weather guy reported everything everywhere on the east coast is either at peak or past peak.

Clueless people, bad information. It would be nice if people doing reporting or writing blog articles would actually take the time to do some research... check their facts.

But I guess that's asking too much nowadays.

We had great colors in southwest Colorado about a month ago with the aspens!




Currently have nice yellow cottonwoods still in northern New Mexico.

Dan,

I am in Southern New England. Northern New England would have peaked by now. But I do not think there is much lasting. Not sure, but the peak seems to be here and gone tomorrow.

Dave

The colors in Northern New England and Adirondacks were pretty nice last week, the Boston area is starting to change over now.

I just returned from the North Carolina Mountains - the Blue Ridge Parkway - there was spotty color and bare, leafless trees - and then on one side of the mountain - the trees were still green with almost no color showing. Where there was color - the tree often was in the center of many leafless trees. Some spots of color were brilliant - but we found them few and far between. the other thing about colored leaves - it often depends on how the sun hits them - and where you are looking at them - the sun coming through the leaves make them brilliant - the other side looks dull and almost lifeless.

From this year - I only have two photo's - but let me show you a red from years gone by - Sour Wood makes the most brilliant of reds

this weekend i saw 1 single orange maple. the rest are shedding their crunchy looking green leaves. tomorrow a big storm, lots of rain, and wind. so it will be a battle between will the leaves turn colors because of the rain. or will the leaves fly away, or will the trees fly away?


---Mike Savad
http://www.MikeSavad.com

I'm betting on the birds flying away. Migration, and all that.

Some good - some not so.

Downeast Maine has peaked, but the remainder of the state is now peaking.
Somewhat dull overall but with some beautiful pockets of multi color.

Rain coming, but without cool weather it might not be the greatest.
Waterways seem to peak later, so just maybe!?!
Two week window,considering all factors!

When life hands you lemons, make lemonaid.

The general consensus in this thread is that the weather has been wonky, and the fall colors less than ideal.

I have been shooting the Blue Ridge Mountains since rocks were lava. And I know every inch of the Blue Ridge Parkway so well I often think I could drive its 469 miles blindfolded. This is undoubtedly the worst year I have ever seen for fall colors. BUT the word "worst" is used advisably. It's not that there are no colors. There are pockets of color. It's more that things are weird. Elevations changing weird, places where colors are usually blazing are not, etc.

But as the old saying goes, you do the best with what is given you.

I didn't think this shot came out so bad. It's a few days ago at Price Lake which is (basically) between Boone, NC and Grandfather Mountain. Before (mountain) sunrise with low fog / mist on the lake and some color left in a few trees. Other trees were bare. These trees and this shot had to be hunted down. So be it. You just work a little harder.



As a side note I was going to shoot again today. I won't now. Life dealt a few more lemons last night with horrendous storms, wind, and tornadoes moving thru the mountains of northern North Carolina and southern Virginia - just where I was going. I would expect trees to be down and parts of the parkway to be closed. So be it. I'll go somewhere else.

Don't let bad reports and pessimistic attitudes stop you. Get out and paint a painting or shoot a picture. Do the best with what you can find.

I just got a flash flood warning on my flip phone, stay out of flooded areas till after 1:30 am. It is only 9:30 pm. The rains are extremely heavy with massive winds. So much for peak anything. We were just getting there a few hours ago.

Dave

Well Dan I'm one of the guys that people turn to for asking about fall colors. And yes, it is and has been one of the tougher years to call the colors.
I only talk about New England but if you check my blog for fall foliage predictions and reports it will give you an idea of how tough it has been. I've been on the road every weekend since the 2nd week of Sept because all of August had been cool and rain free. (also not a lot in July). This continued into Sept but then the second week of Sept through 1 Oct was hot as hades. We had 92 degrees in Burlington VT smashing the previous record. This two weeks stopped dead the fall colors. But until then it was some of the brightest reds seen since 2013. Then the temps would drop to norms for a few days and then warm up and then drop to norm and then warm up.
Basically we need warm (not hot) days, cool to cold nights 35 degrees to 47 degrees. Sunny days are best and a little rain but no downpours with high winds... That is the perfect scenario.
Also a not too wet spring followed by a warm or hot summer with weekly rain showers and if possible rain a couple times in August and Sept... THAT is what we need and I'm betting that is NOT what you go as we didn't either...
website
www.jeff-foliage.com

Less than a week ago I was in Door County Wisconsin photographing the beautiful fall colors. In between driving to my locations, I saw this old rooftop of a home hidden in the woods up on a hill, so I drove in to investigate. It may not be the most beautiful image with pretty fall colors or a picturesque sunset, but its on my top three favorite all time images I have ever taken.

The point is, always keep your eyes open, even if you are disappointed about a planned photo shot or trip. You never know what you may find.

Still green in Oklahoma and I think it might be another year where the wind blows the leaves away before they reach full color... that happens around here pretty often. Hopefully not! I personally like the method Bill Posner mentioned... look outside. Hang a rope on the shed, if it's wet it's raining, if it's wiggling it's windy, if it's white it's snowing, if it's gone head for the storm cellar.